Operations Research Transactions >
2023 , Vol. 27 >Issue 1: 43 - 52
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15960/j.cnki.issn.1007-6093.2023.01.003
SIR type COVID-19 multi-stage optimal control model
Received date: 2021-04-06
Online published: 2023-03-16
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spreads all over the world, and it makes serious threat to people's health. Being faced with the data of anticipated development of COVID-19, we need to determine the epidemic spreading parameters under limited medical resources to give guidance for implementation intensities of the main epidemic prevention and control measures. In this paper, we describe the development of COVID-19 based on the SIR model. What's more, we propose a multi-stage optimal control model to determine the epidemic spreading parameters. In order to determine the values of parameters efficiently, we construct an SDP approximation model which is a polynomial-time computable problem. Based on the data of COVID-19 published by WHO, we apply our approximation model to obtain the epidemic spreading parameters which describe the development of COVID-19 in the USA within a given period of time, and analyze the epidemic prevention and control strategies.
Jintao XU, Wenxun XING . SIR type COVID-19 multi-stage optimal control model[J]. Operations Research Transactions, 2023 , 27(1) : 43 -52 . DOI: 10.15960/j.cnki.issn.1007-6093.2023.01.003
| 1 | 张彦平. 新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征分析[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2020, 41 (2): 145- 151. |
| 2 | 严杰, 李明远, 孙爱华, 等. 2019新型冠状病毒及其感染性肺炎[J]. 中华微生物学和免疫学杂志, 2020, 40 (1): 1- 6. |
| 3 | 徐宝丽, 管甲亮, 术超, 等. 新型冠状病毒COVID-19相关研究进展[J]. 中华医院感染学杂志, 2020, 30 (6): 839- 844. |
| 4 | 陈兴志, 田宝单, 王代文, 等. 基于SEIR模型的COVID-19疫情防控效果评估和预测[J]. 应用数学和力学, 2021, 42 (2): 199- 211. |
| 5 | Xu C , Yu Y , Chen Y , et al. Forecast analysis of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in the USA by a generalized fractional-order SEIR model[J]. Nonlinear Dynamics, 2020, 101, 1621- 1634. |
| 6 | Mahrouf M , Boukhouima A , Zine H , et al. Modeling and forecasting of COVID-19 spreading by delayed stochastic differential equations[J]. Axioms, 2021, 10 (1): 18. |
| 7 | Khyar O , Allali K . Global dynamics of a multi-strain SEIR epidemic model with general incidence rates: application to COVID-19 pandemic[J]. Nonlinear Dynamics, 2020, 102, 489- 509. |
| 8 | Arcede J P , Caga-anan R L , Mentuda C Q , et al. Accounting for symptomatic and asymptomatic in a SEIR-type model of COVID-19[J]. Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena, 2020, 15, 34. |
| 9 | Zhang Z , Zeb A , Hussain S , et al. Dynamics of COVID-19 mathematical model with stochastic perturbation[J]. Advances in Difference Equations, 2020, 2020, 451. |
| 10 | 薛毅. 数学建模基础[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2011. |
| 11 | 吴尊友. 新型冠状病毒肺炎无症状感染者在疫情传播中的作用与防控策略[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2020, 41 (6): 801- 805. |
| 12 | Nesterov Y. Squared functional systems and optimization problems[M]//High Performance Optimization, Boston: Springer, 2000: 405-440. |
| 13 | 邢文训, 方述诚. 线性锥优化导论[M]. 北京: 清华大学出版社, 2020. |
| 14 | 美国最快12月11日接种新冠疫苗?一线医护人员率先接种[EB/OL]. (2020-11-24)[2021-03-06]. https://xw.qq.com/cmsid/20201124V03H5I00. |
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
